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The Smart Take:
Big tax changes could be coming soon!
On February 25, the House passed a budget resolution setting a $4.5 trillion cap for a new tax bill that could replace the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) before it expires at the end of 2025. But what will the new law look like, and how will it impact your financial plan?
In this episode, Tyler Emrick, CFA®, CFP®, breaks down the key debates in Congress, what changes might be coming, and how you can prepare now to optimize your tax strategy.
Here’s some of what we discuss in this episode:
📉 TCJA Expiration in 2026 – What happens when the current tax cuts expire?
⚖️ New Tax Bill Proposals – The biggest changes lawmakers are considering
💰 How to Prepare – What you should do now before changes take effect
⏳ Why Timing Matters – Waiting too long could cost you thousands
📊 Tax Planning for Retirement – Strategies to minimize your tax burden
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The Hosts:
Kevin Kroskey, CFP®, MBA – About – Contact
Tyler Emrick, CFA®, CFP® – About – Contact
Episode Transcript:
Tyler Emrick:
Big tax changes could be on the horizon. With the House passing a $4.5 trillion budget resolution at the end of February, lawmakers are gearing up for a major tax bill. But the real debate is just beginning and the outcome could have a huge impact on your financial plan. We cover it all coming up today on Retire Smarter.
Walter Storholt:
Hey, it’s another episode of Retire Smarter. Walter Storholt back with you alongside Tyler Emrick, Certified Financial Planner® at True Wealth Design. Tyler is also a Chartered Financial Analyst and a wealth advisor. It’s great to have him on each and every time we do this show, pretty much at this point, except for when Kevin comes back and says hello every once in a while.
But Tyler, I always look forward to these conversations, even though I know that you’re not 100% looking forward to having to address some of the stuff on today’s topic, as you admitted before we started taping today. We have to wade into the world of politics just a little bit. So we’ll both suck it up and I’ll be in it with you.
Tyler Emrick:
Fair enough. Fair enough. Yeah. Give me a little bit of a longer leash here today.
Walter Storholt:
That’s right. That’s right.
Tyler Emrick:
Yeah. Taxes and politics. So hang in there with us today. We’ll make it as fun as possible and make sure that we’re just covering some of the key points that the families and individuals listening need to know about here today.
Walter Storholt:
Two things that have nothing to do with each other, taxes and politics, right?
Tyler Emrick:
Yeah. Where they intersect, right? We’re definitely hitting in where they intersect here today.
Walter Storholt:
For sure. For sure. Well, let’s focus on something positive to start us out this week then. How’s life treating you? How’s everybody doing in the household? Any exciting things on the agenda for you guys?
Tyler Emrick:
Yeah, no, life is good. I mean, obviously here in Northeast Ohio, the weather’s finally starting to break, knock on wood, so that’s a positive. Our oldest is also getting ready to gear up for kindergarten coming up in the fall.
Walter Storholt:
Well, a new journey to go on.
Tyler Emrick:
Yeah, it is. It is. So we got to visit her elementary school last week. She was just very, very excited and check out the school and all that good stuff. So kindergarten and starting the fun adventure of elementary schools on the docket for the Emrick household.
Walter Storholt:
Nice. You’ll have PTA meetings coming up soon that you’ll be taking part of. You’ll be like, wow, I’m really an adult now. I’m going to PTA meetings.
Tyler Emrick:
Yes. And being on that infamous school schedule, right? Or the summers are off.
Walter Storholt:
Yeah.
Tyler Emrick:
Oh, wait, no, not me per se, but certainly the kids. And I am sure school will be driving us here for the next handful, two handfuls, three handfuls of years, so.
Walter Storholt:
Yes. Yes. Well, that’s great, man. I’m excited for you. What a fun little time that will be. And are you going to get really into the first day of kindergarten outfits and some of those kinds of…
Tyler Emrick:
Oh yeah. Yeah. I’ll definitely take off for the first day. My wife did surprise me a little bit though, and she was like, “Hey, we’re going to take her to school on the first day and drop her off.” And I was like, “Oh. Oh, we do? I thought she would just be getting on the bus. Oh, okay.” And then she’s like, “Well, we could definitely just get her on the bus and then we can drive to the school, watch her get off the bus and walk into the school.”
Walter Storholt:
Uh-oh. Too much. Too much.
Tyler Emrick:
And was like, “Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah, I’m on board. Whatever you want to do, let’s do it.” But yeah, I’m sure it’ll be a fun day for the whole household and maybe a little bit of tears for parents, for us, seeing her walk in. But yeah, I’m sure it’ll be a good one.
Walter Storholt:
All right, we’ll turn our attention to the important stuff here in a moment of the taxes and the politics. But I have to ask one question. We’re talking about kindergarten, but we’re recording this in March. Are you on a weird school schedule where that’s coming up or we’re just still looking forward to the fall?
Tyler Emrick:
Still looking forward to the fall. No, it was like a-
Walter Storholt:
Okay. All right. This is top of mind for you right now. Okay, gotcha.
Tyler Emrick:
It is. Yes. Yeah, it was-
Walter Storholt:
I had to do a calendar check. I was like, hold on a second. Why are we talking about kindergarten? It’s March. What?
Tyler Emrick:
Well, they had an event for all, I guess the new kids going into the school-
Walter Storholt:
Oh. You’re already that far along.
Tyler Emrick:
Come and see… Yeah, planning ahead, right? Hey, this is what it’s going to be. This you need to decide by. This is the pick schedule and all that other stuff. So yeah, really ahead of the game, right?
Walter Storholt:
It is.
Tyler Emrick:
I was surprised to March and already getting ready for fall.
Walter Storholt:
I thought that was just something you do a week before school.
Tyler Emrick:
Hey, I did two with my limited knowledge on it. Good thing my wife’s on top of it.
Walter Storholt:
Yes. Yes. As long as one of the two of you is on top of it, we’re good. Right?
Tyler Emrick:
Yeah.
Walter Storholt:
That’s good stuff.
Tyler Emrick:
No, absolutely. But yeah, transitioning from kindergarten to taxes and politics, I think we can make that work, right?
Walter Storholt:
Yeah. Your daughter won’t have to learn about that for too much. She can put that off a little bit. But for the rest of our listening audience, it’s probably something we should grasp our arms around a little bit. So lead the charge, my friend. What’s most important to talk about in this conversation today?
Tyler Emrick:
Sure. As with most things, I guess we’re thinking about the podcast and hey, what topics that we’re bringing and such. I kind of ran across an article that kind of piqued my interest and got me thinking about it. I mean, we talk about the TCJA, so that’s the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, that’s the current tax code that we’re working under currently. Of course, I think if anybody listens to a few of our podcasts, we’ve mentioned this before, that hey, we got big tax changes potentially on the horizon and the TCJA and our current tax code is set to revert back and change coming in 2026. So there’s been quite a bit of headlines here with the new administration coming in and the Republicans essentially trying to wrap their arms around passing new tax legislation pretty high on the docket because they know this change is coming. So they’re going to have to work on, well, how do we handle that change and what new legislation do they want to try to pass here before the end of the year?
So the clock is ticking for them to make those changes. And I think most Republicans want to extend or even expand on the TCJA’s tax cuts. However, because of some of the lack of a majority in the Senate and some other things, what they’re going to have to do is follow this process called reconciliation. You ever heard that term before Walt or know what I’m mentioning on that?
Walter Storholt:
Yes, but I feel like it’s just been more of an in passing thing.
Tyler Emrick:
So basically reconciliation is a process that allows the passage of budget-related bills with only a simple majority. So it allows the bills to go through a little bit easier. That’s what happened with the TCJA when it passed. And there’s a few unique quirks that come out when they go through that reconciliation process. And the first step in that process was actually started at the end of February, which is what this whole article was kind of relating to. It said, hey, the House passed the first step in the reconciliation process, which was to pass a budget resolution that kind of sets a blueprint for the total cost of the bill.
So with that kind of behind them, now they can start working with potential numbers and start working on the actual bill itself. With that blueprint, essentially what came out of it was that there’s a maximum of a four and a half trillion dollars cost for the plan tax bill. So what does that mean? Well, essentially in effect, it means that whatever bill Congress passes must include no more than 4.5 trillion in total tax cuts over a 10-year window that covers the current budget. So, actually, when I was reading the article, I had to read that a second. Like, okay, wait, they’re capping the amount of tax cuts they can do? Why the heck are they doing that? Wouldn’t we want as much tax cuts as possible? And then it hit me that, oh, well of course we can’t have so many tax cuts because, well, we have this deficit issue and deficit problem and we don’t want to exacerbate that issue.
So what also happens in this reconciliation process is that a bunch of rules need to get followed, one of which is the Byrd Rule that kind of governs the reconciliation process that says that the bill cannot contain any total cuts that extend beyond a 10-year window, and that’s similar to the situation that we’re in. When we went back to the TCJA and that was passed, there was a time limit on that which ends here in 2025, and that’s why we’re going back. So these rules are not necessarily new by any means, but they’re fresh and certainly going to be top of mind as we’re kind of thinking through, well, what tax changes can be on the horizon and what can Congress actually do and what rules do they need to follow?
As I think about today, what’s going to be most important is us kind of taking a look at this and saying, well, how’s that going to impact you and your specific situation and how do we want to plan for it? And some of the uniqueness of this reconciliation process, what’s the important points that you need to know as you’re kind of thinking about your specific situation?
Walter Storholt:
Okay, very good. I understand kind of the setup here then is this problem of, hey, if we can drive down what we’re paying in taxes, increase these tax cuts, sounds great on the surface in a lot of different ways, and I’m sure that is something a lot of people listening are, hey, who doesn’t want to pay less in taxes? But we got to cap on this thing. We can’t drive it so low that we’re now affecting the stability and the balance of the budget and all those other things.
Tyler Emrick:
You got it. And there’s probably one more, not probably, there is one more unique thing that I found fascinating that’s kind of a little different than when they did this the last time. And that is some of the nitty-gritty and granularity of, well, what constitutes an actual tax cut? Of course, the devil’s always in the details. There’s always going to be a little back and forth on it, right?
Walter Storholt:
I guess that makes sense, right? Because we can get taxed 100 different ways. It’s not always the same kind of tax that we’re exposed to, and they can be sneaky and hit you in all sorts of different angles. So it makes sense that we could do the reverse with a cut.
Tyler Emrick:
Oh, absolutely. Well, and if we think a little bit about the situation that we’re in, it’s like, well, should the cost of any of the new bills tax provision be compared to where taxes are now, as in 2025, or where taxes will be after reverting back to pre ’28 rules in 2026? That’s a pretty substantial difference and a big deal.
Walter Storholt:
Oh, I see what you’re saying.
Tyler Emrick:
I mean, in Washington, I think they’re calling it what is going to be the current policy baseline. So if we unpack that a little bit, it’s like, well, if it’s the current law, then any calculation of the bill’s cost, we’ll assume that the TCJA would have expired as planned. So the pre-2018 tax law would be considered the baseline in that case. So simply extending the TCJA’s current provisions will not take up most of that $4.5 trillion target cost for the bill with little room for further tax cuts. So all these things that, and the headlines have come out where republicans want to no tax on tips or increase the state and local tax, SALT deduction cap, or I think the elimination of estate tax I’ve seen. I mean there’s been a whole host of them that are out there. Obviously we want to be mindful of, hey, these still need to get passed and obviously we want to be aware of them. But until they get passed, it’s not going to actually come through in your actual planning.
So if it’s that current law, that’s really not going to give us much wiggle room or not us, but the Republicans, much wiggle room to make many changes. Now, what the Republicans want to do is they want to treat the tax rules under the TCJA is the baseline. Meaning that let’s just assume that it would’ve been extended, we wouldn’t revert back. And what that would essentially do is effectively free up in regards to that the entire $4.5 trillion blueprint target for additional tax cuts. So essentially they would go in and say, well, yeah, the tax cuts that we’re under now, that’s our normal baseline. We should have another four and a half trillion of tax cuts that we can do when we think about a new bill. And as you can imagine, well, what they can and can’t do is going to be really dramatically affected by, well, what do they consider this current baseline policy to be?
Walter Storholt:
Wow. Yeah, I mean, I get that line of thinking and that the differences in the two perspectives there, but math is still math, right?
Tyler Emrick:
Right. Are we reverting back in current law or not? Or hey, do we want to assume that the TCJ is the new current law and would automatically be affected? Now we will see where it goes, but certainly some of the changes that the Republicans want to do, if we go and assume that, hey, the law’s going to revert back, so you got to find another 4.5 trillion of costs or cutting there, that’s going to be much, much more difficult for them to get in some of these changes that they want to do if that’s the case.
Walter Storholt:
Gotcha. So it’s less truly about trying to balance this magic budget number and more about just the optics or the perspective of do we have 9 trillion to work with essentially, or four and a half trillion? And if we only have the four and a half just extending what we already have in place, pretty much eats all that up.
Tyler Emrick:
It does. You nailed it. Exactly correct. So, I’m sure it’s going to be a topic of some pretty hot debate as we kind of progress through the year here and they’re trying to get something passed.
Walter Storholt:
I’ll be honest with you, I still don’t quite get it. How we can just say… I feel like you can’t just pick a random starting point and it changes the numbers by four and a half trillion dollars and that make any sort of actual financial sense. I don’t know, does my struggle make sense to get this understanding?
Tyler Emrick:
No, not at all. I mean, I think this is kind of the balance right on, hey, what’s on your priority list? Is our deficit on your priorities list or our tax cuts on your priority list? And obviously if you ask different politicians I’m sure you’re going to get different answers. And certainly if we asked, did a poll the listeners, I’m sure we’re going to get the whole different list of priorities and where they think that the law should go.
Walter Storholt:
So am I understanding it that if they go the route of getting $9 trillion of wiggle room to work with by having that different baseline, we’re not caring about the deficit really at that point, it’s much more about-
Tyler Emrick:
It certainly could be a bigger impact to the deficit. Yep, absolutely. Because just extending the TCJA as is, I mean, that’s roughly eating up that entire budget. So then they have really no other changes or they’re going to have to pull and work under some of the other rules and change from other places if that’s the case.
Walter Storholt:
Okay. All right. I think I’m with you. I know you don’t just have a one-point show, so I know we’ve got other key points coming.
Tyler Emrick:
Right. So in the backdrop of all this, I really wanted to go down into some of the decision points that are facing the politicians today and how they might impact. And what’s probably most important is, hey, they got all these decisions and what they need to work through. The question really becomes for the listeners is like, well, how do you start to plan for it? And what are maybe some of the high level things that need to be in the back of their mind as they’re getting inundated with these headlines over the coming months and starting to figure out, well, how does this apply to my specific financial plan and what I’m trying to accomplish from a tax standpoint?
Well, the first point that I got on here, maybe is the most obvious, but hey, changes are coming. Are you prepared and do you have a plan in place to maneuver around them? We talk all the time here on the importance of having a financial plan. I think now more than ever in this coming year, leaning on that financial plan to help make what might seem like some pretty quick decisions at the end of the year here on what you want to do from an income tax planning standpoint are very valuable.
But you got to have some type of understanding of how your tax situation is going to potentially change over time, how maybe required minimum distributions are going to affect that, how pension plans are going to affect that, how retirement might affect that, to get a baseline understanding of like, well, where am I right now? What am I paying in taxes currently? So that way you can use that as a framework for, okay, well if these changes happen, how do I want to maneuver that? How do I want to change how I’m contributing to my 401(k)? How do I want to change my Roth conversion strategy or how much income I’m taking for small business owners?
So there’s a whole host of decisions that are going to be based off of what this new legislation looks like, but understanding your personal situation to a T is going to go a long way when you’re trying to make these decisions come Q4 here in 2025. So, that’s my first advice.
Walter Storholt:
How frustrating or are we missing opportunities by the fact that we are into this year and we don’t know what the actual changes are going to be, or because this year still has the continued policies that it’s not a huge concern for when we hit 2026 and we’re filing those 2025 taxes, we’re not missing out on making good decisions at this point in time because we’re still under that current law? It’s not like they’re going to pass something middle of the year that changes this year as well. This would all be ’26 and going forward?
Tyler Emrick:
I would think it would all be ’26 and going forward for the most part. Obviously, hey, who knows when it comes to politics and legislation that’s passed, but traditionally it’s happened at the beginning of the year, that’s what they did last time-
Walter Storholt:
I guess it still makes things difficult on you guys though, right? Because when the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was passed, you knew like, okay, we have this timeline, this X amount of years that we can operate under these assumptions, and we know in 2026 we may face some changes, but we can at least for, in 2020, you’re planning one way and it’s pretty consistent into 2021 because you know what to expect. But now you guys are having to navigate with your clients this year not knowing how to anticipate next year. So does that impact how you make decisions for people on this side of the coin on this year?
Tyler Emrick:
Oh, absolutely. And I think it impacts just the conversations that are being had. I don’t know if it necessarily for every family changes what the game would be for this year, but it certainly begs the question of, well, when do we do some of these things that were in the plan? And hey, this is our baseline, this is what we think is going to happen, let’s wait and see and get more information as it comes in and that way we can make the best decision we can when some of this legislation becomes more clear and what might get passed. And frankly, maybe even waiting till, hey, when does it get passed?
So some plans might change, but at the end of the day, you need to make sure that you have some type of plan put in place and an ability to be able to quickly dissimulate and understand what changes are going to be happening and how that impacts your specific situation. And that all goes back to your team, whether that’s you, if you do your planning on your own or if you have a team of individuals, your wealth advisor team or your CPA and all that stuff really needs to be on the same page. And I could imagine our busiest time of the year normally is going to be at the end of the year because we’re getting in all those year-end tax items. I could imagine that this year we’re going to be even more busy than what we typically are trying to adjust for what passes here or if anything does pass at the end of the year.
Walter Storholt:
Yeah. You got two days to make any changes that you need to make to end the year. Good luck.
Tyler Emrick:
Yes. No. Well, that’s right. I mean, I think that’s the second point that I even have on here. It’s like these things are going to probably go through very last minute. The TCJA, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, I mean, that was approved by Congress in December 20th, 2017. It was signed into law December 22nd. So obviously we had indications and we had some idea of what was going to be in it up until that time. But really all the way up until December, there were changes being made to some of the legislation and some of the laws. Maybe we knew what 90, 95% of it was going to be. But that doesn’t give us a whole lot of leeway as you start thinking about, well, hey, I want to adjust this, tax rates aren’t going to go up as much as I expected, or they’re going to go down or whatever the case is.
So having that plan in place and being able to implement it in a quick and effective fashion, I think is going to be extremely, extremely important. And we’re probably going to be doing it towards the end of the year, of course, last minute.
Walter Storholt:
If it goes through on the 20th or signed into law on the 22nd this year, just to say if things repeated, you would have essentially three, four, we’ll count at five business days to make changes before the end of the year. But yeah, a little tight.
Tyler Emrick:
You would. Yeah, and some of those changes, hey, like I said, maybe 90, 95% of the bill we maybe know in November so you can be ready and be ready to implement. And maybe some of the changes aren’t going to necessarily affect what you’re trying to accomplish in 2025. But at the end of the day, taking advantage of those opportunities and understanding the impact for you, we want to make sure if there’s an opportunity there that we can take advantage of it.
I can’t stress enough, having a team in place that understands your situation and understands what you’re trying to accomplish in the long term really helps you kind of disseminate that information more quickly and make more effective decisions as you’re thinking about your tax planning, your income planning, or frankly, whatever the case may be.
Walter Storholt:
Okay. Makes sense.
Tyler Emrick:
And if we look back, and what I’ll end on is really some of the idea here that these changes are likely going to be temporary. The whole lead-in, and part of why I started with this, hey, we’re going to have to go through this reconciliation process. It’s probably going to be tempting. Hey, there’s this fancy Byrd Rule that we need to follow and it can’t extend beyond a 10-year window. All that kind of leans to the fact that whatever these changes are that come through, they’re likely going to be temporary again. So if we look back and when the TCJA was passed and all the things that we had done because of that, there were so many changes in there it really changed the way that we did so many things.
I mean, just to name a few, I mean the TCJA actually lowered tax brackets roughly around 3% across the board, certainly there were some differences depending on which tax bracket that you’re in. But we were in a lower tax bracket. So if you’re saying, hey, I’m going to higher tax bracket now, I’m going to be in a lower bracket for the next X number of years. Well, what are the things that I need to be doing to take advantage of me potentially being in a tax bracket? So a lot of things like Roth conversions and tax bracket management all came up and were changed the way we implemented because of the TCJA.
It also changed the standard deduction. For a lot of individuals that were itemizing their deductions, come 2018 under the new tax legislation they went and took the standard deduction. So your gifting changed. Your mortgage deduction maybe wasn’t there. The SALT was capped, that’s the state and local tax deduction that you get, that was capped at 10,000. So if you’re in a state where you pay a bunch of state and local taxes, that really impacted the amount of deductions that you had. So when we look at that from, well, how do you do your gifting? How valuable is your mortgage and maybe how quickly you want to pay that down? Those were all decisions that were really impacted by the tax law change.
For the small business owners out there or the contractors out there that were 1099, we introduced this whole new idea of QBI deduction. Which changed the way that owners took wage income and maybe even the structure of the business and really being more thoughtful about how they were taking that income and what you were able to do. So I just listed off just a handful of things that the TCJA implemented that changed from the prior year. As we kind of think about and we get more information in this new tax bill, I mean, it could radically change your financial plan and what you’re doing on a day in and day out basis from a tax standpoint. It could change saving. It could change your your opinion on whether you’re getting a deal on taxes or not.
So I think having someone in your corner or having a team in place to be able to talk through those conversations and disseminate how it affects your specific situation are going to be just as valuable as it was when we had the last passing of the TCJA and the new tax legislation. So I don’t think it’s going to be any different now. The question is just how is it going to impact your specific situation and how does it change what you’re doing from a planning standpoint?
Walter Storholt:
All great outlines there, Tyler. Really appreciate you tackling this subject today because I know it’s going to be something we’re keeping our eye on throughout the year, seeing how the negotiations develop, and then yeah, I’m sure we’re going to be having probably some special episodes at the end of the year kind of tracking this and seeing what happens. Because this will set the tone and the stage, I think for financial planning for many years to come.
Tyler Emrick:
It will.
Walter Storholt:
So this will be a big deal depending on, even if it’s just, hey, maintain, that’s a big deal because it’s going to extend the current opportunities even longer. And if it takes on a whole new shape, we’ll have a lot to figure out too.
Tyler Emrick:
It would.
Walter Storholt:
So big news, no matter which direction it heads in here.
Tyler Emrick:
Yeah, no, you’re 100% right. And I can’t stress it enough on if you haven’t got a plan in place and you won’t have a team in place to be able to help you wade through it, now’s the time to start doing that. Not in Q4, as we’re getting more information, you’re trying to start a new relationship or you’re starting to have those preliminary conversations. You’re going to be much, much better served starting to think about it now and having those conversations with your financial advisor and your CPA to make sure that you’re well positioned come the end of the year.
Walter Storholt:
You took the words right out of my mouth. I was just getting ready to say, don’t wait until December 22nd to reach out when we know what it is. Go ahead, do that now and establish the relationship.
If that’s of interest to you, as you listen to the show today and you’re like, yeah, I’d like to see what it’s like to work with this True Wealth Design team, see what you guys are all about, let me encourage you to go to TrueWealthDesign.com. You can click the let’s talk button to schedule a 20-minute discovery meeting with an experienced advisor on the team. Again, you just go to TrueWealthDesign.com, click let’s talk, and you can schedule that visit. Again, it’s just an easy first conversation. See if you’d be a good fit to work with one another. What kind of needles can be moved by proper and more intense financial planning? And Tyler and the team, along with Kevin Kroskey and everybody else at True Wealth Design, will help see where you are right now, where you need to go into the future, get you set not only for this big piece of news and legislation that’ll be taking shape throughout the year, but obviously a long-term look here at the rest of your financial life, into and through retirement and all the things that come along with that as well.
We’ve got that linked in the description of today’s show, by the way, the web address TrueWealthDesign.com. You can also call the number that’s in the description too, 855-TWD-PLAN. 855-TWD-PLAN. Either way, reach out, ask the questions that are on your mind and see if you’re a good fit to work with the team. Otherwise, just keep listening to the episodes and we’ll see you again next time on Retire Smarter.
Tyler, until then, thank you so much and take care and we’ll talk soon.
Tyler Emrick:
Yep, will do.
Walter Storholt:
All right, we’ll have another new episode in a couple of weeks. Come back and join us for that. Until then, I’m Walter, for Tyler, we’ll see you again soon on Retire Smarter.
Speaker 3:
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